China’s Stability as a Growing World Power, Patrick London

         With a population of over one billion people and the world’s largest export market, China stands at the forefront of both technological and political development in a globalizing world. While all of this seems great on a theoretical platform, there lies within its foundation a support that is ready to crack, that of political unrest. While China continues to grow at such an unprecedented rate, the political structure both domestically and globally is struggling to keep up. Over the past six months, China has placed two prominent political figures under house arrest, refused to recognize one of its citizens as a Nobel Peace Prize winner, arrested a man for standing out against toxic food and fissured their relations with Japan over contested territory. Considering all of this, it sounds as if the current Chinese regime and its practices toward human rights are beginning to come under some heavy fire.

            In October of 2010 it was reported that Mr. Liu Xiaobo, a prominent human rights activist, was the winner of the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize. Upon hearing this, the Chinese government began discouraging its citizens as well as the Nobel committee not to revere this man for he was nothing more than a criminal. Several Chinese media services kept as quiet as possible about the announcement. Any data streams such those distributed from computers or cell phones that contained Xiaobo’s name were blocked. On top of all this Xiaobo’s wife Liu Xia was placed under house arrest whilst three armed guards stood outside her door blocking any visitors including several foreign dignitaries. If China is to be considered a stable political power, why should such behaviors be carried out against its citizens? Because China responded to this event with such militaristic strategies, one begins to wonder how internally stable the country really is.

September 2010 marked what was to become an international argument with China at the lead. When a Chinese fishing boat captain was arrested after running into two Japanese boats in the South China Sea, China was immediately on the defensive. They began by cancelling all high priority political meetings with Japan as well as imposing several new export tariffs that would slow down product flow. Japan of course took the stance that they were completely within their jurisdiction and China should apologize. After several weeks of arguments and no real apologies between the countries, Japan finally released the captain, spurring several protests. After the captain returned home, China began arguing the true matter of this debacle, the land rights of the area. Although Japan is officially recognized as having control over the area, China contends this and instead exerts their claims to the area. Within the area there is a string of islands known as the Senkaku. These islands are uninhabitable except for wild goats, however they just so happen to be right in the middle of an area with high oil potential. Therein lays the heart of the matter, China’s desire for more energy. Although energy is a staple in China’s economy, so is trade. The very notion of China hinting at severing ties with one of its largest trading partners seems strange for just a bit more oil.

            Although relations with Japan still remain defensive on either side, the two countries have begun working together once again. Because China relies so heavily on exports to fuel their economy, any drop may produce serious repercussions. As one of China’s largest trading and export markets, Japan seems to hold a fair amount of sway within the economic realm. Why then did China risk damaging such a relationship over a simple territorial dispute? It may be correlative as to why they placed Liu Xia under house arrest, control.

            When looking at macro trends throughout China, control often lies at the heart of many of the regime’s actions. Any threat to the credibility or questioning of control to the regime is seen as a threat and handled in a militaristic fashion. This paranoid control can still be seen in everyday conversations where Tiananmen Square has become a taboo subject. People are afraid of the regime and their melodramatic actions. A quote from famous political activist and artist Ai Weiwei states: "They cannot let anything happen if they don't understand it". Mr. Weiwei said this when he was placed under house arrest for attempting to hold a party in recognition of Liu Xiaobo’s accomplishment. This iron fisted rule however cannot last. While the regime has current control, several factors are acting against the likelihood of its continued success.

            With a population in the billions, and an exponential rate of economic growth, China’s regime has a lot on its plate. Although heavy media censorship is still carried out, such as internet firewalls, phone deactivation as well as news control, people are still finding ways to communicate and share their concerns. In 2009 the micro-blog service Twitter was banned from Chinese internet due to its power in connecting people on a wide scale. Since then another governmentally run and monitored service has been set in place. The bloggers however are beginning to find cleaver ways of getting around the censors by abstracting their type so as to not be flagged. This example goes to show that although the regime is treating symptoms of social unrest, it is not treating any of the causes. The very fact that the Tiananmen Square (or June 4^th) incident is still such an underground topic of discussion in China shows that the people are discontent with such authoritative rule. Perhaps the people should not fear the regime but the regime should fear the billion people it is upsetting daily. When looking at the regime’s recent actions, this is likely the case. A party held by a bunch of artists would likely not get such attention if there was not some type of underlying concerns as to the stability of the regime’s control.

            Other than the less than compassionate focus on human rights, what are some of the benefits of the communist regime? Well as stated, China is growing exponentially year by year. They account for much of the U.S.’s imports and continue to be the majority exporter of rare earths. Within this type of system, a government that operates quickly and succinctly is very conducive to this type of growth. If there are not long winded processes to be carried out on every new tariff or tax put in place, then businesses are able to be more productive. Inherently this system does not however allow for any input from outside sources thereby making many decisions heavily biased.

Although operating at a quick pace, one must consider who the new business movers and shakers will be and how their restricted access to information may hinder them in a global market. If in fact Chinese businesses do wish to dominate the market, their top members need to be well informed on global topics. If the same censorship applies to them as it does to every other Chinese citizen, then they don’t even have access to Google, let alone the vast amounts of information it helps deliver. On a basic level this is a very sobering thought, giving power to a few individuals who have limited access to global information but are expected to operate on a worldwide scale.

            What then is the likely scenario for China within the next decade? It is likely that the censorship restrictions will go under heavy reformation to allow a wider access to information for citizens. This however can only happen if a change in overall attitude toward the people takes place. As it stands, China is likely going to be the next world power. If they do indeed hold this position, it seems an unlikely scenario that they would still be able to get away with arresting citizens for speaking out against lethal baby formula.

If China is to succeed, they also need to work on their foreign relations and public image. Threatening to sever ties with one of your top trade partners because you want access to ocean area they lawfully control is not a good way to present oneself. This coupled with threatening the Nobel Peace Prize committee makes China look like the grumpy old neighbor yelling at kids to get off the lawn. It is likely however that because China is a trade based economy, the influence of economics will take care of this vicariously by creating common goals for China and their trade partners to reach for.

With Xi Jinping as the upcoming prime minister, it will be interesting to see how the political future of China plays out. Recent attention to human rights brought about by Ai Weiwei’s house arrest, a citizen’s imprisonment for seeking retribution because his child consumed poisonous baby formula and the refusal to acknowledge Liu Xiaobo as the Nobel Prize winner, will definitely bring into question the current state of human rights in China within the next few years.